2018 MOOSE JAW HOUSING STARTS For the period January 1 to June 30, 2018 the City issued 11 permits for new dwellings, valued at $3,354,900 compared to 24 permits issued for the same period in the prior year valued at $3,210,140. In 2016 Moose Jaw recorded 53 building permits for new dwellings valued at $20,503,339 compared to 53 permits in 2015, valued at $16,773,000. Construction of multi-family condo units remained slow in 2016, 2017 & 2018 as the high inventory of new and resale condos cooled the pace of new projects, especially multi-family units. The record for dwellings starts was set during 2012 with 132 starts valued at $37.4M.

According to CMHC’s Market Outlook Report for the Prairie Region, economic conditions have remained weak, as the low commodity environment continued to negatively affect economic activity and consequently, labour market conditions. As a result, builders have lowered new production focusing instead on inventory reduction, especially multi-family units. Housing starts are forecasted to stabilize in 2018 as inventory reduction holds back growth. By 2019, reduced inventories, stronger economic and employment growth will increase housing starts. In Saskatchewan total housing starts are projected to increase to 4,600 to 5,200 units in 2017 and 4,900 to 5,500 in 2018, compared to the 5,000 units built in 2016 and 5149 units in 2015.

Housing starts are regarded as an indicator of a region’s economic vitality. CMHC says in Saskatchewan there is “moderate” evidence of overbuilding and “strong” evidence of overvaluation in some markets. The scaling back of construction has helped reduce housing inventory going into 2018, but even so the trend of more homes for sale than buyers is likely to continue well into 2018.

For the same reasons, the number of resale transaction in Saskatchewan is also down but improving economic conditions should gradually lift the number of MLS sales. In Saskatchewan, resales are projected to stabilize in 2017 to a range of 11,600 to 11,900 transactions, compared to 11,500 - 11,700 MLS sales in 2016 and 12,245 sales in 2015.

The Buyer’s market conditions throughout 2016 caused the average MLS price to decrease to $289,700 from $297,487 in 2015. This year prices are expected to stabilize and then firm up due to economic and demographic growth. The average price will gradually rise to a range between $291,500 to $300,500 in 2017 and between $294,500 and $304,100 in 2018.

In the past few years, Saskatchewan’s large influx of migrants has generated momentum in resale market. Relatively improving economic conditions in other provinces has moderated the inflows of migrants. For the housing market, the slowdown in population growth and employment comes at a time when a glut of supply is looking to be absorbed with a record number of completed but unoccupied units.

MOOSE JAW HOUSING REPORT

2017 MOOSE JAW HOUSING OUTLOOK “New home” inventory and increasing supply of resale homes remains a constraining factor to single-detached starts in 2017. Population growth is necessary to allow existing single-family and multi-family units to be absorbed. The average MLS price is expected to remain stable or possibly moderately decline. The continuation of low interest rates in 2017 will support home sales although the recent addition of PST on labour for new homes may prompt home owners to look at used homes as a more affordable option.

2018 MOOSE JAW MLS RESALE MARKET HOUSING The new matrix Home Price Index (HPI) which measures residential price trends based on four benchmark home types, is considered more accurate of housing prices than average or median. In July 2018, the city of Moose Jaw’s MLS Home Price Index (HPI) reported a residential Benchmark price of $221,300 compared to $219,665 in the same month last year and second lowest compared to neighboring cities.

For the period January to July 2018, the city of Moose Jaw recorded 55 sales compared to 64 for the same period in 2017. Meanwhile the year to date number of new listings is down with 354 for the period compared to 396 last year. The average days on the market has increased to 82 days in 2018 compared to 80 in 2017. Year to date 2017 experienced the poor “solds to listings” performance and is deemed a “buyer’s market” continuing the long-term trend since 2015. The sales to new listing ratio this year is 37.9 per cent year to date compared to 46.7 per cent for the same period last year.